The winning season can turn an ugly corner.
Long-term cop Art Hogan warns of a storm of disappointing company forecasts and missed sales targets.
“Buckle up,” said National Securities’ chief market strategist to CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “This will be the first time in this cycle you’ve heard more companies going down than going up.”
Hogan cites headwinds in connection with delivery backlogs, inflation and labor shortages.
“There will be a real winning season for the haves and the have-nots,” Hogan said. “The haves really do have this pricing ability.”
As an example of problems ahead, he cites Snap’s third quarter results. The social media giant reported a loss of revenue last Thursday and lowered its forecast – citing problems in its advertising business and global supply chain disruptions. Snap stock is down 27% since the announcement.
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“Total demand exceeds total supply,” said Hogan. “If you have nothing to sell, you’re probably not increasing your ad budget.”
He wants long-term investors to resist the urge to react to volatility and believes they should take a barbell approach to investing, with growth on one side and cyclical stocks on the other.
“Every profit reporting season is not the time to radically change your long-term investment plan,” he said. “But make sure you know what you have on your growth side and make sure you choose companies that are actually industry leaders and that are measured in a P / E ratio [price-to-earnings ratio] versus price versus revenue. “
He believes the pain won’t seep through until the end of the year. His S&P 500 year-end target is 4,700, up 3% from Friday’s closing price.
“We have a long runway ahead of us, and I think a lot of the demand that hasn’t been met this year will be dragged into 2022,” Hogan said.
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