Caroline Nicolls receives on 13.

Steve Parsons | AFP | Getty Images

LONDON – Months of data from the UK vaccination program have provided deeper insights into the effectiveness of vaccines against Covid-19.

Things are looking bad again in the UK, but on closer inspection it could be much worse without the vaccines.

The latest government figures show hospital admissions are on the rise. In the week ending October 17, 6,315 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 – a 15% increase from a week earlier.

But of the people who were hospitalized between September 13 and October 10, the vast majority were unvaccinated. The hospitalization rates for unvaccinated people in all age groups were more than double compared to those who received two doses of a vaccine.

The graphic below also shows that the connection between cases and admissions has become much more detached since the earlier part of the pandemic.

Deaths from the virus are also increasing in the UK in the seven days to October 21, 912 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid, a 10% increase from the previous week.

The risk of dying from Covid was also significantly higher in the unvaccinated population, according to official data on the spread of the virus in England.

Out of 100,000 unvaccinated people aged between 60 and 69 in England, 20 died after contracting the virus. For those vaccinated in the same age group, that number dropped to 4 per 100,000. Among people aged 70 to 79, 47 out of 100,000 unvaccinated people died after contracting Covid, and for those over 80, the unvaccinated death rate was 128 per 100,000.

There have been 48 deaths from the virus in people aged 18 to 40 years. Of these, 34 – or 71% – were unvaccinated.

The graph below also shows a decoupling between cases and deaths compared to the January peak.

Over the summer, as the weather warmed and vaccine intake increased, both deaths and hospital admissions from Covid in the UK fell dramatically. The death toll was below 10 per day for many days in May and June, with the 16th

So far, 86% of people over 12 years of age have been vaccinated against Covid, 79% have received two doses. In England to date, more than 4.2 million people have received a booster vaccination, and it has been shown that the effects of vaccination wear off over time.

Despite government assurances that there are high levels of immunity among the population, doctors are warning the UK is entering a crisis. There are also concerns about a new mutation of the Delta variant circulating in the country that is being investigated by UK health officials.

The government has rejected calls for the immediate reintroduction of some restrictions, such as mask requirements, which the British Medical Association has criticized as “willful negligence”.

On Wednesday, UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid warned that Covid cases could reach 100,000 a day by winter.